The Hype That Launched a Thousand Submissions
When Trevor Lawrence was drafted first overall in 2021, collectors treated his cards like the second coming of Andrew Luck meets Tom Brady’s hairline. Boxes of Prizm and Donruss were flying off shelves faster than a Jacksonville fan yelling “DUUUVAL,” and PSA got buried under an avalanche of Lawrence rookies. The logic was simple: “He’s the chosen one. I’ll grade ten base rookies, sell eight, keep two for retirement.”
We all know how that went.
By late 2022, Lawrence’s prices cratered faster than the Jaguars’ playoff odds that year. Cards that once fetched $400 in a PSA 10 were barely cracking $150. The dream of instant flips had turned into a masterclass on why timing matters more than hype.
The First Boom: Prospect Euphoria
The 2021 draft class came right after pandemic-era mania, when even base cards were being treated like blue-chip stocks.
Trevor Lawrence was billed as “can’t miss,” and with that label came one of the most aggressive speculative surges football cards have ever seen.
Collectors who read posts like Should You Grade Football Rookie Cards? understood the risk: grading hype-based rookies is a gamble unless you flip early.
But most of us didn’t listen. We wanted to hold. We wanted to “let it cook.”
The market didn’t care.
The Dip: When Reality Hit
By mid-2022, Lawrence’s inconsistency, coaching chaos, and general Jaguars-ness caught up to him.
Buyers who shelled out hundreds for Prizm Silvers or Optic Holos watched those comps drop like a bad pass.
The problem wasn’t talent—it was timing. The hype train slowed just as more PSA 10s flooded the market.
If you’d been tracking population reports and listing cycles, you could’ve seen it coming.
Too many cards, not enough new buyers.
In hobby terms, we hit “pop inflation.” That’s when even the best player’s cards sink because there’s simply too much supply chasing too few dollars.
The Redemption Arc: 2023 Playoff Push
Fast forward to the 2023 season—Lawrence looked poised for a bounce-back. The Jaguars were finally competent, and he was starting to deliver the leadership scouts promised.
Prices rallied a bit. Not full boom levels, but enough that early holders could finally unload slabs without crying into their team hats.
The real winners? The patient flippers who didn’t panic sell during the dip.
Remember this: every correction is an opportunity if you know what to look for.
Lesson 1: Buy When Everyone’s Complaining
By the time social media turns on a player, the damage is already priced in.
Collectors who bought Lawrence when his cards hit the floor in 2022 saw a healthy ROI when he rebounded.
That’s the sweet spot—buy when the hobby’s groaning, not cheering.
You can see the same dynamic in posts like The 2025 Football Card Flip: High Potential, Low Buy-In, which breaks down how overlooked players can quietly outperform their hype-heavy peers.
Lesson 2: Pop Counts > Headlines
Most people still ignore PSA population reports. Big mistake.
If there are 20,000 PSA 10s of a single Prizm rookie, good luck holding value long-term.
Meanwhile, numbered parallels, short prints, and even SGC 10s of rarer inserts can perform better over time.
The trick is paying attention to both player trajectory and print run.
When Trevor’s prices tanked, the rarest cards—Golds, 1/25 autos, Color Blasts—barely dipped. The base army? Obliterated.
Lesson 3: Sell Into Strength, Not Emotion
The biggest trap in the hobby is emotional attachment.
If you bought Trevor Lawrence because you believed, cool—keep one for the PC. But the other nine? Those were investments.
The key is to sell when the buzz peaks. Don’t wait for perfection.
If the Jags go 3–0 and ESPN’s fawning over Trevor’s hair again, that’s your signal.
That’s the moment to list, not when the season ends and everyone’s watching basketball.
This is where reading something like The Problem with PSA 10s (and Why SGC Might Be the Better Flip) can save you money—understanding that even grade trends shift faster than most collectors realize.
Lesson 4: Grading Isn’t a Magic Wand
A lot of collectors still think slabbing guarantees profits. It doesn’t.
When you factor in fees, shipping, turnaround, and changing market moods, you can easily turn a $50 card into a $40 return.
The Trevor Lawrence boom exposed that hard truth.
Collectors who flooded PSA with bulk base subs learned that a label can’t fix market saturation.
Meanwhile, smaller graders like SGC gained traction because they offered speed and lower risk during volatile times.
Lesson 5: Patience Beats Panic
Collectors who dumped everything after Trevor’s rookie slump missed out on the comeback.
The smart ones waited, maybe even doubled down during the dip.
It’s the same rhythm you see across sports cards. Every young QB goes through it—Herbert, Burrow, Fields, even Mahomes to a lesser degree when the Chiefs stumble.
The key is holding conviction when everyone else is scared, and selling strategically when optimism returns.
The Macro View: Cycles Never Change
Every few years, a “next big thing” enters the hobby.
The story always repeats: hype spike → overgrading → crash → partial rebound → long-term stabilization.
The Trevor Lawrence saga is just the latest iteration.
If you zoom out, it’s not a tragedy—it’s a free seminar in market psychology.
Collectors who internalize that lesson will be miles ahead when the next QB prospect sets the hobby on fire.
How to Apply This Going Forward
- Be early, not greedy. Flip during hype runs. Don’t wait for perfection.
- Check pop reports before grading. If thousands already exist, skip it.
- Track the offseason. Prices often dip between playoff buzz and draft hype. That’s where you buy.
- Don’t chase hype cycles twice. Once a player’s market peaks, move on to the next opportunity.
- Keep your bankroll flexible. The more tied up you are in long-term holds, the fewer flips you can make when new opportunities arise.
The Trevor Takeaway
Trevor Lawrence’s card market wasn’t a bust—it was a mirror.
It reflected everything we love and fear about the hobby: the adrenaline, the risk, the heartbreak, and the quiet satisfaction of learning through it all.
If you came out of the Lawrence era bruised but wiser, good.
You’ll be ready when the next “can’t-miss” QB hits the scene—and you’ll handle the hype like a pro instead of a panic seller.
The Final Word
Patience and timing will always beat hype and hope.
Whether it’s Trevor Lawrence, Caleb Williams, or the next generational QB, the story’s the same: those who study the cycles and control their emotions win.
Everyone else? They’re still sending base cards to PSA and wondering why the math never adds up.
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