The Brutal Truth About Investing in Running Back Cards
Let’s get one thing straight: investing in running back cards is a high-risk, high-reward game. It’s like playing fantasy football with real money, except the players can’t be benched, and their value is tied to the whims of a market that can turn on a dime. The NFL treats running backs as disposable assets, and the sports card market often follows suit. A running back’s career is notoriously short, a brutal ballet of collisions and injuries that can end a player’s prime in an instant. One wrong cut, one awkward tackle, and that prized rookie card can become a painful reminder of what could have been.
Think about it. For every Adrian Peterson or LaDainian Tomlinson, there are a dozen Trent Richardsons, Montee Balls, and Bishop Sankeys. These were guys who were supposed to be the next big thing, players who had collectors scrambling for their rookie cards, only to see their careers fizzle out. The modern NFL is a passing league, and the running back by committee approach has made it even harder for a single back to dominate and maintain long-term value. It’s a tough scene, and it’s why many collectors avoid running back cards altogether. But for those of us who are willing to embrace the risk, there are opportunities to be found. You just have to be smart about it.
The Modern Running Backs I’m Actually Investing In
So, who are the modern running backs that are worth the risk? Who are the guys that have the potential to defy the odds and become long-term holds? It’s a short list, but there are a few names that stand out. These are the players who have the talent, the situation, and the narrative to become true hobby stars.
Breece Hall: The Total Package
Breece Hall is a special talent. Coming out of Iowa State, he was seen as one of the most complete backs in his draft class, a player with the size, speed, and receiving ability to be a true three-down workhorse. His rookie season was a tantalizing glimpse of that potential before it was cut short by an ACL tear. But his comeback in 2023 was nothing short of remarkable. He didn’t just return to form; he looked even better. He was explosive, decisive, and a nightmare for defenses in the open field.
What makes Hall such an intriguing investment is his versatility. In the modern NFL, a running back who can’t catch the ball is a liability. Hall is a legitimate threat in the passing game, a guy who can line up in the slot and run routes like a wide receiver. That’s a skill set that will keep him on the field and producing, even as he gets older. With a healthy Aaron Rodgers under center, the Jets offense should be much improved, which means more scoring opportunities and more chances for Hall to shine. His Prizm rookie cards are still relatively affordable, and they offer a great entry point for a player with his upside.
Bijan Robinson: The Generational Talent
There’s a reason why Bijan Robinson was a top-10 pick in the NFL Draft. He’s a generational talent, a player with the kind of vision, balance, and elusiveness that you just can’t teach. His rookie season was a bit of a roller coaster, thanks to some questionable usage by former Falcons coach Arthur Smith. But when he was given the opportunity, Robinson showed why he was so highly touted. He’s a human highlight reel, a player who can turn a simple handoff into a 60-yard touchdown.
With a new coaching staff and a competent quarterback in Kirk Cousins, the sky’s the limit for Robinson. He’s the focal point of that offense, and he’s going to get all the touches he can handle. He’s another back who is a major threat in the passing game, which only adds to his long-term appeal. His cards are a bit more expensive than Hall’s, but that’s to be expected for a player with his draft pedigree and potential. If you’re looking for a blue-chip running back to build your collection around, Robinson is your guy.
Kyren Williams: The Underdog
Kyren Williams is the underdog on this list, a former fifth-round pick who burst onto the scene in 2023 and became one of the most productive backs in the league. He’s not the biggest or the fastest, but he’s a tough, instinctive runner who just knows how to find the end zone. He’s also a surprisingly effective receiver out of the backfield, which makes him a perfect fit for Sean McVay’s offense.
The big question with Williams is sustainability. Can he handle a full workload over a 17-game season? Can he stay healthy? Those are valid concerns, but they also create a buying opportunity. His cards are still very affordable, and if he can prove that last season was no fluke, they could see a significant jump in value. He’s a bit of a gamble, but he’s a gamble worth taking, especially at his current price point.
The Running Backs I’m Avoiding Like the Plague
Now for the fun part. For every running back I’m targeting, there are five I’m actively avoiding. These are the players whose card markets are inflated, whose situations are precarious, or who simply don’t have the long-term outlook to justify an investment.
First up, any running back on their second contract. I know, it sounds harsh. But the history of running backs who sign big-money extensions is not pretty. The production almost always falls off a cliff, and their card values follow suit. It’s the nature of the position. The wear and tear catches up to them, and they’re rarely the same player they were in their early twenties. There are exceptions, of course, but they are few and far between.
Next, I’m avoiding the plodders. The big, bruising backs who get you three yards and a cloud of dust. They might be effective in real-life football, but they don’t have the “wow” factor that drives the card market. Collectors want explosive plays, long touchdowns, and ankle-breaking jukes. They want players who are exciting to watch. The grinders, the guys who just fall forward for a few yards, don’t move the needle.
Finally, I’m steering clear of running backs in committee situations. This is becoming more and more common in the NFL, and it’s a killer for card values. It’s hard for a player to build a brand and a following when he’s splitting carries with two or three other guys. There are some exceptions, like the Lions’ duo of David Montgomery and Jahmyr Gibbs, but for the most part, you want a back who is the clear-cut number one.
Final Thoughts
Investing in running back cards isn’t for the faint of heart. It’s a volatile market, and you have to be willing to do your homework and accept the risks. But if you’re smart about it, if you target the right players and avoid the pitfalls, it can be a rewarding experience. The key is to focus on young, versatile backs who are in good situations and have the potential to become true stars. And if you’re looking for more insights into the sports card market, be sure to check out my thoughts on the best wide receiver cards to invest in. It’s a different ballgame, but the principles are the same.
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